Trump’s foreign policy can be explained by rational US interests, but it requires settling the trade war with allies sooner rather than later. Book gains on EUR-USD for now.

The tariffs on Canada and Mexico will come into effect as scheduled while the tariffs on China will be doubled. In the Middle East, Iranian response to any attack will threaten Middle Eastern oil supply. Meanwhile, Chinese fiscal…

Trump’s ceasefire talks are positive for Germany – and so was the German election result. But Trump’s tariffs will hit Germany soon. Investors should use near-term volatility to increase exposure to Germany.

Special Report

The rise of the far-right is challenging mainstream German politics. The CDU/CSU and SPD will govern Germany again after the election. A ceasefire in Ukraine will offer some relief, but Trump’s policies will keep tensions high.…

Special Report

This is a follow-up report on Bessenomics – the policy mix that US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent plans to pursue. The direction of US and global financial markets depends on the amount of fiscal tightening required to bring down…

Special Report

China barely hit its growth target in 2024 by shifting back to its old model of exports, racking up a record trade surplus with the world – right as Donald Trump walks back into the White House. Tariffs will elicit larger fiscal…

Special Report

Simple games allow us to model several of the Trump administration’s most disruptive policies in 2025. We find that markets face an increase in volatility as Congress expands the budget, Trump implements tariffs on the world, China…

Global risk assets are engulfed in a wave of euphoria, which is pulling Europe higher along the way. However, risks still abound. How should investors adjust their allocation to Europe under these highly uncertain conditions? 

Special Report

We offer 5 key investment views for US fixed income markets in 2025.

Congress will pass tax cuts by end of 2025 producing a fiscal thrust of about 0.9% of GDP in 2026. Trump will count on that stimulus as a basis for slapping tariffs on leading trade partners.China will retaliate against Trump…