Democrats are favored to win the election until recession materializes. But recession risks are high. Investors should adopt a defensive and conservative strategy in 2024 amid extreme US policy uncertainty.
Falling core inflation in the US over the short run will boost real disposable household income, which will keep consumption – ~ 70% of US GDP – strong. Over the medium- to-longer term – 3 to 5 years out – inflation risks rise as…
Illegal immigration into the US has skyrocketed to record levels. Correctly accounting for this, US real consumption growth on a per head basis is already fragile. Meanwhile, the real bond yield is only now approaching the pain point…
In this Insight, we discuss the outlook for monetary policy in New Zealand after this week’s RBNZ policy meeting, and introduce related fixed income and currency trade ideas.
A cyclical recovery in China’s economy is still not imminent. The PBoC has tightened interbank liquidity to stabilize the exchange rate since late August. This does not bode well for the real economy. The uptick in onshore bond…
Today, we are sending you the BCA annual outlook for 2024. The report is an edited transcript of our recent conversation with Mr. X and his daughter, Ms. X, who are long-time BCA clients with whom we discuss the economic and…
China’s push to dramatically expand its copper-refining capacity will be complemented by further vertical integration of mining assets. However, surplus refining capacity will push treatment and refining charges lower in the short…