2024 Key Views: China Is In A Deflationary Trap

07 Dec 2023

by Arthur Budaghyan, Chief EM/China Strategist

The overarching macro theme for China in 2024 will be deflation and its impact on the economy, macro policies, and financial markets. Widespread deflation, in combination with high debt levels and falling real estate prices, has unleashed debt deflation and balance sheet recession dynamics. The latter are rendering monetary policy inefficient.

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BCA Research | China Investment Strategy

Evaluates both the cyclical trends and structural developments of China's economy, offering investment recommendations for China and the Greater China Region.