Highlights Divergence between U.S. and global economic outcomes is bullish for the U.S. dollar and bad for EM assets; Maximum Pressure worked with North Korea, but it may not with Iran, putting upside pressure on oil; An election is…

Special Report

Highlights Malaysian elections are likely in April or May and we expect will return the ruling BN coalition to power; Malaysia's banking system is vulnerable and economy is highly exposed to a relapse in Chinese growth and/or…

Highlights The Mueller investigation is part of the "Trump Put;" General White House disarray and congressional incompetence combine to produce Goldilocks conditions for U.S. equities; Mexico's frontrunner in the…

Highlights Ongoing monetary tightening in China poses a substantial threat to EM risk assets. Yet financial markets remain highly complacent. Mind the gap between EM risk assets and commodities currencies/various commodities prices.…

There has not been much of an improvement/recovery in the Chinese economy. Credit growth is weakening anew, which warrants a downbeat cyclical outlook for China's industrial sectors. Malaysia is heading into a classic credit/banking…

The near-term (next month or two) market dynamics in EM risk assets remain a coin toss. Beyond that the outlook for EM risk assets remains downbeat. EM financial markets are complacent and there are many potential negative EM/China…

Beyond the ongoing short-term rebound, EM currencies have more downside, and will depreciate by more than is implied by their forward rates on a 6-9 month horizon. This makes us reluctant to recommend buying local currency bonds to…