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Labor Market

Essentials
US Employment Gathering Steam
The blowout US payrolls report reinforces improving labor market momentum and upside risks to Fed policy, arguing for continued caution on duration. Non-farm payrolls rose 172k, well-above expectations of 88k, while the prior two months were revised sharply…
Artem Sakhbiev
1 month ago
USLabor MarketEconomy
Essentials
JOLTS Surprise: Less Than Meets The Eye
The April JOLTS report confirms a mixed labor market signal rather than a clean reacceleration, reinforcing the view that the Fed can avoid hiking unless inflation expectations or core inflation force the issue. Job openings jumped sharply above expectations…
Artem Sakhbiev
1 month ago
USLabor Market
Essentials
The EQ Premium
Our Counterpoint strategists argue AI will not make the human brain obsolete. AI can replicate parts of our brain’s neocortex, which supports logic, reasoning, mathematics, and other IQ-driven tasks, but it lacks the limbic system that generates emotion and…
Rajeeb Pramanik
1 month ago
TechnologyAILabor Market
CoreMacroEssentials
Why Robots Will NOT Kill Middle Incomes

AI excels at IQ but fails miserably at EQ. Hence, AI will obsolete any job that relies on IQ, including many graduate-level jobs. But high-EQ humans will be in high demand to pair up with AI, and many of these jobs will be middle income jobs. We discuss the implication for the economy and markets. Plus, a new tactical trade is underweight global tech versus healthcare.

Dhaval Joshi
2 months ago
GlobalThematic ReportsTechnology
Essentials
Slack, Britannia?
The latest UK employment and inflation data came in cooler than expected, reinforcing the case for weaker growth ahead. Payrolls fell by 100k in April after a 28k decline in March. The unemployment rate also rose 0.1pp to 5.0%. Average weekly earnings ticked…
Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
2 months ago
UKInflationLabor Market
Essentials
Canada: Losing Momentum
Canada’s growth outlook is deteriorating, with labor-market slack rising and economic surprises turning lower. Canadian economic surprises have turned negative and continue to fall. The April jobs report disappointed, with employment contracting for the third…
Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
2 months ago
CanadaEconomyLabor Market
CoreMacro
“There Is Nothing To Be Gained For Our LPs By Being Bearish”

We take stock of earnings, AI capex and the labor market and explain why we think the repeated new highs in the S&P 500 are justified.

Doug Peta
2 months ago
USLabor Market
Essentials
A Goldilocks Jobs Report
The April US employment report points to a goldilocks labor market. Nonfarm payrolls rose 115k, beating estimates, after a strong upwardly revised 185k in March. Two-month revisions removed 16k jobs, leaving the 3-month moving average at 48k, above our 30k…
Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
2 months ago
USLabor MarketEconomy
FICC
A Goldilocks April Jobs Report

Improving job growth keeps Fed rate cuts off the table, but evidence of labor market tightening will be required before rate hikes become part of the discussion.

 

Ryan Swift
2 months ago
BondsUSEconomy
CoreMacro
Seven Reasons Why The Hormuz Crisis Has Yet To Cause The Global Economy To Crash

The global economy has weathered the oil shock reasonably well so far. However, the risk of a recession will increase meaningfully if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed into June.

Peter Berezin
2 months ago
GlobalOilEconomy

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