Why The World’s Fate Hangs On 2.5 Million Older Americans

13 Nov 2025

by Dhaval Joshi, Chief Strategist

The greater risk to the world economy in 2026-27 is not that a recession triggers a market crash, but that a market crash triggers a recession. This is because a market crash will destroy the wealth that is funding the crucial marginal spending of 2.5 million excess American retirees. Plus, a new tactical trade is: Overweight Switzerland (SMI) versus UK (FTSE 100).

Interested in reading this report?

To access the full BCA Research report, request a complimentary copy

BCA Research | Counterpoint

A global macro strategy which uniquely synthesizes macroeconomics with psychology, behavioural finance, non-linear systems, complexity, and fractal analysis.

Contents

Executive Summary
2.5 Million Excess American Retirees Are Driving The Economy And Keeping Inflation Hot
The Fed Is Your Friend
Don’t Focus On Catalysts, Focus On The Fragility Of The System
Tactically Overweight Switzerland (SMI) Versus UK (FTSE 100)
Indicators To Watch - Bond Yields
Indicators To Watch - Interest Rates