The market will eventually be forced to react to rising odds of a sharp US national policy reversal. Investors should overweight government bonds and defensive equity sectors.

The Republican Party’s odds of winning the 2024 election will benefit, if anything, from state courts’ attempts to exclude President Trump from primary or general election ballots. Higher odds of a change of ruling party will…

More equity volatility is coming in the short run. Trump’s nomination looks to be smooth, which marginally reduces the incumbent party advantage and increases policy uncertainty.

US fiscal, monetary, and foreign policies are unlikely to deliver any dovish surprises for investors in Q4, due to the impending government shutdown, persistent inflation, and instability among OPEC+ and China.

Special Report

Stocks perform worse in presidential election years than average years, especially in the first half of the year, and especially if the ruling party ends up falling from power. Investors should take risk off the table until the…

Special Report

The Supreme Court is a generator of certainty rather than uncertainty for US markets. In the event of a constitutional crisis, a court intervention will likely reduce volatility.

No, the secular rise in geopolitical risk has not peaked. EU-China trade ties underscore the multipolar context, but this multipolarity is unbalanced, as the US has not reached a new equilibrium with its rivals. While the second…

Stay defensive in the second quarter. We can see a narrow window for risky assets to outperform but we recommend investors stay wary amid high rates, supply risks, extreme uncertainty, peak polarization, and structurally rising…

Special Report

Investors should avoid / stay underweight Turkish stocks and local currency bonds versus their respective EM benchmarks. Stay underweight Turkish sovereign credit.