Negotiations on trade, Iran, and Ukraine will prove critical this month. Markets will remain volatile because positive data surprises enable the White House to press its hawkish tariff hikes, while negative surprises force the White…
Our Counterpoint strategists overweigh Europe versus the US across both equities and bonds, and are structurally long bitcoin. Trump’s tariffs are deflationary for the world and inflationary for the US, prompting a sharp shift in…
Last week, we hosted two webcasts for our clients globally to discuss the effects of tariffs on US equity sectors, preview the Q1 earnings season, and map out the trajectory of S&P 500 price performance. We also asked the webcast…
Fed Chair Jay Powell’s remarks yesterday were in-line with our base case expectation that the Fed will not cut rates proactively in the face of rising tariff-driven inflation.
China’s aggressive retaliation against U.S. tariffs will enable President Trump to shift from punishing allies and redirect the trade war toward China. If Beijing does not react to the latest tariffs by doubling its fiscal stimulus,…
President Trump imposed tariffs on the world in his first 100 days, as we expected. Tariffs may have catalyzed a recession in the US, given the weakness in consumer sentiment and demand. Trump will soon backpedal and grant exemptions…