With 88 days to go until the U.S. presidential election our client meetings are starting to steer towards "all Trump, all the time." In this report we present evidence that Trump's electability is correlated with the chief global…
There has not been much of an improvement/recovery in the Chinese economy. Credit growth is weakening anew, which warrants a downbeat cyclical outlook for China's industrial sectors. Malaysia is heading into a classic credit/banking…
Signs that the median voter is moving to the left are everywhere. Markets will cheer the move as it means more government spending. In the long term, it depends if policymakers stop at fiscal stimulus. In this Monthly Report, BCA's…
There is no evidence of a sharp increase in China's state sector investment in recent months. This, together with the cautious private enterprises, explains why overall Chinese investment has remained downbeat. Public sector…
The Chinese government is engaging in a difficult balancing act between the imperative of maintaining growth momentum and structural reforms. Policymakers have eased off the gas pedal, but the impact of previous stimulative measures…
The median voter theory is one of the few genuine theories of political science. It assumes that voters have limited policy priorities and that politicians want power. Therefore the latter will adjust their stances to satisfy the…
The window for "stealth" RMB depreciation is likely closed for now. The Chinese authorities are stepping up efforts to boost infrastructure construction with several major announcements last month. Capital spending on transportation…
China's reflation policies have succeeded in reviving iron ore and steel prices, which are up 45.6% and 52.6% from their January lows, along with the profitability of domestic steelmakers.
A stronger yen is hampering efforts to revive the Japanese economy and the BoJ's failed NIRP experiment leaves open the option of direct currency intervention. Probability is also high that the April 2017 sales tax hike will be…