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Monthly Report

Who's Afraid Of Big Bad Trump?

by Matt Gertken, Chief Geopolitical/US Political Strategist   Marko Papic, Chief Strategist  

With 88 days to go until the U.S. presidential election our client meetings are starting to steer towards "all Trump, all the time." In this report we present evidence that Trump's electability is correlated with the chief global safe haven, the 10-year Treasury. Markets may be overreacting, however. Trump has a chance, but Clinton is the clear favorite. We also bust five myths about China's political system, in a continuation of our coverage of rising geopolitical risks in East Asia.

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BCA Research | Geopolitical Strategy

The financial industry’s premier geopolitical research service. We use hard data to calculate scenario probabilities and market impacts for geopolitical risks and opportunities. 

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