Indian EPS growth is set for major disappointments vis-à-vis the lofty expectations. Weak domestic demand amid tight fiscal and monetary policy entails more downside in stock prices. Stay underweight.

Macro and geopolitical risks may spoil the narrow window for a stock market rally before recessionary trends rise to the fore.

Pent-up demand for services is keeping the global economy going, but we still expect recession over the next 12 months. Investors should keep a cautious portfolio stance.

Special Report

Cyclically-speaking, the risk of global indebtedness does not appear to be acute. There are several pockets of sizeable private sector debt risk, and it is possible that the next US/global recession will cause a more pronounced economic…

Special Report

An important annual event is when long-time client Mr. X visits BCA strategists at the end of each year to talk about the economic and financial outlook and a write-up of the discussion is published as our Annual Outlook report.…

Special Report

Government financing vehicles (LGFVs) are a key component of China’s credit system. LGFV bonds make up a 40% share of the onshore corporate bond market, and loans to LGFVs make up 20% of total loans. LGFV debt-servicing capacity is…

Special Report

This Special Report discusses why there is a non-negligible risk that the US Congress will not reach a timely agreement to lift the debt ceiling this summer. It also discusses what will happen in bond markets in the lead up to the…

No, the secular rise in geopolitical risk has not peaked. EU-China trade ties underscore the multipolar context, but this multipolarity is unbalanced, as the US has not reached a new equilibrium with its rivals. While the second…

Tight monetary policy will suppress copper capex. Loose fiscal policy, which is lavishing stimulus on energy and defense firms, will stoke copper demand. Constrained copper supply and turbo-charged demand will feed into headline…

Eventually South Africa will do its macro rebalancing the least painful way: via adjustments in nominal variables such as prices and currency, rather than in real variables such as jobs and incomes. That entails a much weaker rand in…