The Indian rupee remains vulnerable to further depreciation amid slowing growth, tight domestic policy, and fragile capital flows. Trade risks and a weakening external balance will likely keep INR underperforming EM Asia peers.…
Turkey’s financial policymakers have pursued a disciplined and restrictive policy mix so far, delivering high real interest rates and curbing fiscal expansion even as the economy slows. This commitment to inflation control has paved the…
The yen’s discount, surplus, and rising real rates line up for a multi-quarter surge. Find out why EUR/JPY is the first short and when USD/JPY follows.
The Japan-US trade deal removes short-term uncertainty but leaves in place high tariffs. The deal imposes a 15% tariff on most Japanese exports, lower than the previously threatened 25% on autos, and includes Japanese commitments to…
The Upper House loss of Japan’s ruling coalition reflects growing political uncertainty, reinforcing our underweight in JGBs and bullish stance on the yen. The LDP-led ruling coalition has lost control of both houses of…
EUR/JPY has reached stretched levels, prompting new short trade recommendations across BCA Strategies. The calls are underpinned by compelling valuation, macro, and technical signals.
The fact that the US economy has been slower to deteriorate than in past cycles is entirely consistent with our kinked Phillips curve framework. We will be looking to our MacroQuant model for guidance on when to turn fully defensive…
Jay Powell won’t be removed as Fed Chair before the expiry of his term next May, but we will learn the identity of his replacement this year, setting up a potentially awkward “shadow Fed Chair” situation.
Our Geopolitical and Equity Analyzer teams recommend a Value and Quality-focused equity basket in Industrials, Financials, and Consumer Discretionary to capture OBBBA-driven upside. These sectors are the primary beneficiaries of the…
Acute geopolitical risks, like a massive oil shock, may be abating. But structural geopolitical risk remains high and could upset a blithe market. Cyclical economic risks are underrated as the US slows down and China continues to…