The Brexit vote has ended the reflation trade, but does not represent a "Lehman moment" either. Stick close to benchmark in terms of broad asset allocation, and watch European bank CDS for signs that another financial crisis is…
If the damage of the Brexit is contained in the U.K., the direct economic impact on China should be marginal. China's relatively closed financial system makes it less exposed to global shocks than most other countries. It is too soon…
The Chinese government is engaging in a difficult balancing act between the imperative of maintaining growth momentum and structural reforms. Policymakers have eased off the gas pedal, but the impact of previous stimulative measures…
The median voter theory is one of the few genuine theories of political science. It assumes that voters have limited policy priorities and that politicians want power. Therefore the latter will adjust their stances to satisfy the…
The window for "stealth" RMB depreciation is likely closed for now. The Chinese authorities are stepping up efforts to boost infrastructure construction with several major announcements last month. Capital spending on transportation…
This month's Special Report reviews the literature on equity market timing, and identifies the key indicators that historically have had the best track record. We then aggregate the indicators into an overall scorecard that should…
China has fallen into the same "fiscal trap" that ensnarled Japan in the 1990s. Unprofitable investment projects undertaken by SOEs are a necessary evil. The underlying problem is not overinvestment, but an economy that is demand-…
The reflation rally continues. Despite our bearish outlook for the year, we think the risks of the current rally lie to the upside given China's redoubling of stimulus at the expense of reform. Populist troubles are picking up in…