At current levels, Treasury yields are consistent with our assessment of fair value. Further, the Fed's Labor Market Conditions Index does not suggest an imminent recession. Expect payrolls to stabilize above levels consistent with…

Risk assets will take their cues more from the dollar than the Fed if the euro rises above its 16-month range against the dollar. Retain exposure to energy equities and gold.

Underweight Following up on yesterday's cautious Insight on the overall financials sector, the heavyweight bank sub-component looks precariously positioned. The latest FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile made for grim reading. Credit…

The brief bout of relative strength in financial stocks has proven fleeting, as rate hike expectations have been dashed by weakening U.S. employment. Whether the Fed hikes now or later, sluggish domestic growth is sustaining downward…

Special Report

In this Special Report, we revisit our list of signpost economic indicators introduced two years ago to identify if the U.S. and Euro Area were falling into a "Secular Stagnation".

In March we recommended doubling down on our overweight S&P consumer finance index call, because company-specific factors had caused relative performance to undershoot the bulk of our macro indicators. Since then, the share price…

While the financial sector relief bounce is likely to peter out as the Fed threatens to tighten monetary conditions during a profit recession, the more defensive REIT sub-component should continue to outperform. REITs are still not…

Special Report

The Turkish central bank has almost exhausted its foreign exchange reserve. It has been printing money to keep interest rates lower, and sustain the credit boom in the economy. Such policies are unsustainable and the currency will…

Investors have embraced renewed Fed hawkishness as a vote of economic confidence and confirmation of analysts' rosy earnings forecasts, but the bounce in financials looks unsustainable, outside of REITs. Hang on to gold shares.

The latest conclusions from the sector-based (right) way to pick stock markets. Plus some important conclusions for credit markets.