Equities
Our US Equity strategists remain bullish as their proprietary cyclical indicator shows US growth is modestly improving. The turn is being led by business-side indicators, while consumer and labor-market signals remain soft. Historically, expansion phases have…
Markets become vulnerable when the wisdom of crowds gives way to the madness of crowds, creating exploitable opportunities for active managers. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Dhaval Joshi, Chief Counterpoint Strategist. Dhaval examines what makes markets…
Relative macro momentum still favors the US over Europe. Our tactical framework rests on two ideas: the feedback loop between financial conditions and economic data surprises, and the impact of macro momentum on markets. In Europe, momentum had already…
Our EM strategists argue that US bond bear markets historically only end after major economic or financial turmoil, and this cycle is unlikely to be different. Our colleagues see US equities and bonds on a collision course, with only a meaningful equity…
US stocks and bonds are on a collision course. Only a meaningful equity selloff is likely to pull bond yields considerably lower. Global equity risk-reward looks poor. The dollar will stay firm near term, but its medium- and long-term outlook remains bearish.
The Iran war has made inflation the market’s main focus again, creating a backdrop where resilient data could hurt equities. Long-term inflation expectations remain anchored, but the near-term inflation path is still uncertain. Markets are still trying to…
US growth remains positive and is now improving, with the economy seemingly exiting Slowdown and proceeding into Expansion. Markets are reflecting the shift, rewarding revenue growth and capex growth, while earnings expectations continue to advance. The backdrop remains supportive, but expectations are rising and risks from financial conditions linger.
Strong and broad Q1 earnings are keeping the investment-led cyclical story intact despite rising geopolitical and supply-side risks. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Noah Weisberger, Chief US Equity Strategist. The Q1 earnings season has delivered strong…
Our EM strategists see divergence across frontier markets. They favor Kenyan, Kazakh, and Sri Lankan equities within frontier market portfolios. For sovereign credit, they recommend overweights in Kazakhstan and Sri Lanka, and an underweight in…
We stay tactically open to further risk-asset upside, especially if Hormuz improves, but recognize that the 6-12 month setup is becoming more dangerous. Our monthly BCA Views Meeting centered on the tension between near-term resilience and medium-term…