Recession is not yet fully priced in, so markets have further to fall next year. But watch for a buying opportunity in the second half.
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, Russia’s presidential election of March 2024 will put pressure on Vladimir Putin to negotiate a ceasefire before that time. Putin faces his fifth…
Emerging Market equities recently failed to break below their 24-year moving average that previously served as a key technical support level. Instead, they have rallied alongside DM stocks over the past month. Indeed,…
The Chinese government will repress social unrest, then relax Covid-19 social restrictions to try to stabilize the economy. Russia will be aggressive in the short term but will pursue a ceasefire before March 2024. European and…
Profits of Chinese industrial firms fell by 3% y/y in the first 10 months of 2022, underscoring poor economic conditions. Domestically, the sluggish property sector and negative Covid dynamics are weighing down on private sector…
Chinese social unrest will be suppressed first, then the government will relax policies to stabilize the economy. We are reducing our 4Q22 Brent forecast to $85/bbl as a result of the short-term negative news, but maintaining our $…
European asset prices have rebounded sharply since September. Can this trend survive in the face of a weak Chinese economy where deflation prevails?
Today, we are sending you the BCA annual outlook for 2023. The report is an edited transcript of our recent conversation with Mr. X and his daughter, Ms. X, who are long-time BCA clients with whom we discuss the economic and…
Both Brazilian equities in USD terms and the currency have dropped below their 200-day moving averages since the electoral return of ex-President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on October 31, as investors discount a reversal in…
Despite a recent pro-growth bias in the policy tone, the Chinese authorities remain reluctant to open the stimulus taps to the same extent as they did in the past, especially when it comes to the ailing property market. China…