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Commodity & Energy Strategy
Geopolitical Strategy
Special Report

The Only Thing Missing Is An Asteroid: Unprecedented Uncertainty In Commodities

by Matt Gertken, Chief Geopolitical/US Political Strategist   Ashwin Shyam, Associate Editor  

We are revising our 4Q22 Brent forecast to $90/bbl, expecting December front-line Brent to average $85/bbl. On the back of this early weakness, we are lowering our 2023 forecast slightly to $115/bbl, with an upside bias, anticipating a successful – if chaotic – re-opening in China beginning in 1Q23. Our expectations for copper trading above $4.00/lb in 1Q23 and above $4.50/lb in 2H23 stand.

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Top-down global-macro framework with bottom-up fundamental analysis of major commodities.

 

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