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Emerging Markets

Stay Underweight Indonesian Stocks
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, investors should stay underweight Indonesian equities within Emerging Market and Emerging Asian equity portfolios. Unprecedented export earnings have pushed Indonesia’s current account into a…
Daily Insights
Erdogan Heads To A Runoff Election
Results of Turkey’s presidential election show incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan securing 49.5% of the votes in Sunday’s contest – ahead of his rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu’s 44.9%. Although Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) lost 29 seats in…
Daily Insights
Two Elections: Turkey And Thailand

The Turkish presidential election will go to a runoff in two weeks, but President Erdogan outperformed his opinion polls. His party, the incumbent AKP, won a majority in parliament. This outcome rewards Turkey’s inflationary policies and as such reinforces our underweight position in Turkish equities. By contrast, the Thai election reinforces our recommendation to stay overweight Southeast Asia relative to global equities.

Geopolitical Strategy
China’s Recovery Disappoints
Chinese economic data sent a disappointing signal about the country’s economic recovery. CPI inflation moderated to 0.1% y/y – its slowest pace since February 2021. Similarly, the pace of decline in producer prices accelerated to -3.6% y/y. Meanwhile,…
Daily Insights
Erdogan On The Brink

Erdogan will most likely lose the Turkish election but it could go onto a second round. A strong opposition majority in the assembly would justify a tactical overweight in Turkish equities on a relative basis. For now, go long Turkish equity volatility.

Geopolitical Strategy
Will China Revert To Its Old Stimulus Playbook?
BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service expects the recovery in China’s economy (other than the consumer sector) to underwhelm.  A recent conversation with a one of China’s most prominent and influential pro-market economists (whom they refer…
Daily Insights
A Conversation With A Chinese Pundit

This week we are sending you a transcript of my conversation with one of China’s most prominent and influential pro-market economists. Topics raised during my conversation with this Chinese expert may offer our clients important insights and provide context into recent developments in China’s economy.

China Investment Strategy by Jing Sima
Base Effects Distort Signal From Chinese Exports
China’s trade release shows exports grew for the second consecutive month in April. However, base effects are distorting the signal. In particular, the two-month-long Shanghai lockdown that started at the end of March 2022 weighed on Chinese exports in April…
Daily Insights
Indian Stocks: Do Not Bottom Fish Just Yet
The Indian equity market has fallen by about 15% from its peak last year. Nevertheless, our Emerging Markets Strategists expect a further decline as both drivers of stock prices – EPS growth and multiples – remain vulnerable in India. EPS will contract due…
Daily Insights
CBAM Likely To Be Inflationary
According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service, the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will impart an upward bias to prices in the EU and its trading partners’ economies. Within the EU, the CBAM will have an inflationary…
Daily Insights

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