Emerging Markets
For our last publication of the year, we explore five key themes that will dominate the European macro landscape and markets next year. While the start of 2025 will be challenging for European assets, the latter part will offer some much-needed relief.
What is new? EMS is preparing the ground for a potential change in its USD view sometime in H1 2025. This will be a major milestone as EMS has been structurally bullish on the USD since the spring of 2011.
CNY: What’s The Trade?
CNY…
- Congress will pass tax cuts by end of 2025 producing a fiscal thrust of about 0.9% of GDP in 2026.
- Trump will count on that stimulus as a basis for slapping tariffs on leading trade partners.
- China will retaliate against Trump and stimulate its domestic economy, while pursuing stronger trade ties with other countries. Europe will also retaliate.
- Geopolitical risk will shift from Ukraine-Russia to Israel-Iran, where the conflict will continue to escalate until a crisis point is reached within 2025.
Hard Data Shows No Pickup In Global Growth…
Chinese Inflation: Moderate Easing Will Not Be Enough…
Caixin Services PMI Confirms Chinese Stimulus Is Not Enough…
South Korea Crisis: The Bigger Picture…
ISM Manufacturing: More Than Meets The Eye…
China PMIs: Still Looking For A Turning Point…