China’s monetary and credit data was relatively strong. New yuan loans increased more than expected, as did aggregate financing. M2 met estimates at 7.3% y/y. As was the case for trade in December, seasonality plays a big role…
China’s December trade data was positive, with exports in USD terms rebounding to 10.7% y/y from 6.7% in November, and imports rebounding to 1.0% from -3.9%. Taken at face value, the numbers are positive for both the Chinese and…
UK and German bonds are victims of the global bond market riots. Will European yields continue to move higher and will the euro and the pound find a floor anytime soon?
Our Geopolitical Strategy colleagues published their annual “Black Swan” report, where they outline low-odds scenarios that could have a major impact on financial markets. Here is the 2025 edition: China’s Policy Reversal: A…
Every year we highlight five low-odds scenarios that would have a major impact on global financial markets if they happened. This year we contemplate a total reversal of Chinese policy, a US-Iran nuclear deal, a breakdown of NATO, US…
Chinese December CPI and PPI releases show deflationary pressures are not abating. CPI slowed to a 0.1% y/y pace from 0.2% in November, while producer prices fell 2.3%. The Chinese economy has not meaningfully changed course…
In this week’s report, we present our key takeaways from China's two notable adjustments recently implemented: an upward revision to its 2023 GDP and the reduction of the USD weighting in the RMB Exchange Rate Index.
US bond yields will move higher, unleashing a storm in global financial markets. In the US, rising corporate bond yields will produce a selloff in share prices. In Mainstream EM, rising domestic and USD bond yields will weigh on…
In most developed economies, rising inflation expectations will lift them further above the 2 percent target, limiting the scope for further interest rate cuts. But in Japan, rising inflation expectations will lift them up to the BoJ…
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for January 2025.