The Chinese government is engaging in a difficult balancing act between the imperative of maintaining growth momentum and structural reforms. Policymakers have eased off the gas pedal, but the impact of previous stimulative measures…

Special Report

In this Special Report, we revisit our list of signpost economic indicators introduced two years ago to identify if the U.S. and Euro Area were falling into a "Secular Stagnation".

All three of Trump's signature policy proposals - increased deficit-financed infrastructure spending, a more restrictive immigration policy, and trade protectionism - are dollar bullish. These policies could cause the U.S. economy to…

Special Report

The Turkish central bank has almost exhausted its foreign exchange reserve. It has been printing money to keep interest rates lower, and sustain the credit boom in the economy. Such policies are unsustainable and the currency will…

The window for "stealth" RMB depreciation is likely closed for now. The Chinese authorities are stepping up efforts to boost infrastructure construction with several major announcements last month. Capital spending on transportation…

A Fed rate hike in June, July or September is likely to send our 12-month fed funds discounter toward 70bps by the date of the next hike. This re-rating of rate expectations will cause significant flattening at the long-end of the…

There is a risk that global bond yields move higher in the near term, although we prefer to position for that move via cross-market spread, yield curve and inflation trades.

Markets will remain stuck in a trading range, driven by two policy feedback loops: the Fed's and China's.