Economic Growth
Palladium is by far the worst performing precious metal so far this year. The 30% year-to-date price decline is significantly worse than platinum’s 10% loss and contrasts with higher gold (+8%) and silver (+4%) prices. Interestingly, palladium’s dismal…
A brief recap of the July FOMC meeting and its investment implications.
Tuesday’s German IFO survey corroborates the downbeat message from Monday’s flash PMI estimate highlighting weak economic conditions. The headline Business Climate Index dropped 1.3 points to 87.3 in July – its weakest level since November, and below…
Over the past two months, copper has rallied alongside risk assets and now stands 9% above its late-May trough. Here, the outlook for China’s economy – which accounts for over half of global refined copper usage – is key to whether the red metal will continue…
Results of the ECB’s bank lending survey (BLS) show the impact of the central bank’s aggressive tightening cycle on the region’s economy. Uncertainty about the economic outlook, borrower-specific dynamics, lower risk tolerance and higher cost of funding…
According to BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service, inflation will fall during the next 12 months, but not by as much as markets expect. Investors should take advantage of this valuation opportunity by entering 2-year/10-year TIPS breakeven slope…
Stay cautious on Chinese stocks. Equity investors should use any rebound in onshore stock prices to downgrade A-shares from overweight to neutral within global and EM equity portfolios. Remain underweight Chinese investable/offshore stocks. Onshore bond yields will drop to all-time lows. Continue receiving 10-year swap rates. The currency will continue depreciating versus the US dollar in the coming months.
Flash PMIs sent a mixed signal about manufacturing and service sector conditions across DM economies in July. The Euro Area release was particularly weak. An unexpected 0.7-point decline in the Manufacturing PMI and a 0.9 point drop in the Services PMI drove…
China’s Politburo meeting delivered a disappointing signal about Beijing’s willingness to deliver meaningful stimulus. Although policymakers pledged support for domestic demand, consumer sentiment, and risk prevention, they underscored that the measures will…
This week we preview the July FOMC meeting, provide an update on the Fed’s balance sheet and recommend a new TIPS trade.