Every year we highlight five low-odds scenarios that would have a major impact on global financial markets if they happened. This year we contemplate a total reversal of Chinese policy, a US-Iran nuclear deal, a breakdown of NATO, US…
Congress will pass tax cuts by end of 2025 producing a fiscal thrust of about 0.9% of GDP in 2026. Trump will count on that stimulus as a basis for slapping tariffs on leading trade partners.China will retaliate against Trump…
Trump’s resounding victory brings a popular mandate that ensures deregulation and higher trade tariffs. Higher budget deficit and immigration reform are also in the cards as the Republicans look like they may squeak a thin margin in…
Over the next few months, Japan’s new government will ease fiscal policy, which will improve domestic demand on the margin. Monetary policy may tighten further in the short run but not too much over the long run. The geopolitical…
The global political system is destabilizing and the US will turn more hawkish in foreign policy, trade policy, or both, regardless of the election outcome. Tactically go long the dollar.
Our US Political Strategy colleagues now see 55% odds of a Trump victory, with odds of a Republican sweep at 47%. As odds of a contested election are rising, they built on their 2020 work to provide answers for next week’s…
The main driver of global consumer sentiment in the past few years has been high inflation. Nowhere has this been the case more than in the US, where measures of animal spirits were depressed despite a roaring economy. Today,…
The US election is tightening in its final weeks, and the latest polls challenge our Geopolitical Strategy’s base case of a Democratic White House. The original thesis was built on the premise of a Democratic incumbent…