Stocks will continue to struggle in the second quarter as President Trump tries to implement tariffs. Tax cuts will only temporarily dispel growth fears, if at all. Middle Eastern instability will add oil price surprises to an…
The tariffs on Canada and Mexico will come into effect as scheduled while the tariffs on China will be doubled. In the Middle East, Iranian response to any attack will threaten Middle Eastern oil supply. Meanwhile, Chinese fiscal…
Please join us for a BCA Expert Webcast, Thursday, January 16 at 10:00 AM EDT, with Brendan Kelly, former Director for China Economics on the US National Security Council, veteran of the New York Federal Reserve, Treasury Department…
Every year we highlight five low-odds scenarios that would have a major impact on global financial markets if they happened. This year we contemplate a total reversal of Chinese policy, a US-Iran nuclear deal, a breakdown of NATO, US…
Congress will pass tax cuts by end of 2025 producing a fiscal thrust of about 0.9% of GDP in 2026. Trump will count on that stimulus as a basis for slapping tariffs on leading trade partners.China will retaliate against Trump…
The Election Day is finally upon us. No, there is no final “silver bullet” forecast contained in this email. Just our long-term forecast of how the election will, no matter who wins, impact the markets.
EM credit markets have recently defied the selloffs in EM equities, currencies, local currency bonds, and commodities. According to our Emerging Markets Strategy colleagues, such a decoupling is unusual. A potential Trump re-…
The global political system is destabilizing and the US will turn more hawkish in foreign policy, trade policy, or both, regardless of the election outcome. Tactically go long the dollar.
Markets are rallying on Fed rate cuts and China stimulus but there will also be October surprises ahead of the US election, which Trump could still win. Russia’s conflict with the West is escalating and the Middle East is…