British Pound
The pound will reach $1.60 if ‘America’s Brexit’ cancels out ‘Britain’s Brexit’. Meanwhile, the flight from the fiat dollar to non-fiat bitcoin will enable the preeminent cryptocurrency to reach $200,000+.
In this FX note, we provide a rationale for why it is important to pay attention to technical indicators, while still keeping your eyeball on the structural factors that drive currencies. This report answers the following questions: 1. Should you buy or sell the USD over a three-to-six month period from the pure lens of our proven technical indicators and 2. What are the best tactical cross trades among currencies.
Right now, the major stock and bond markets are more ‘anti-fragile’ than fragile, and the Joshi rule recession indicators signal that a US recession is not imminent. This justifies a neutral, or default, tactical weighting to both stocks and bonds until a major market does become fragile, or until recession risk elevates. The one major price trend that is fragile is the 65-day selloff in the US dollar, which justifies a tactical overweighting to the dollar.
The easing bias remains, but not all central banks are equal. This Central Bank Monitor update reveals who is ready to cut more and who is still pretending not to.
This report looks at the FX implications of the Trump tariffs, and the review of our Q1 trades.
With economic headwinds building and fiscal dynamics shifting, bond markets are at a turning point. Our latest note outlines why German bund yields are set to decline and why UK gilts are poised to outperform — and how to position accordingly.
This report is a quick take on our views on UK bonds and FX, given the recent budget.
This report is our Part III series on valuation and subsequent returns, where we recalibrate our short-term models to emphasize signals over the next nine-to-twelve months. We will henceforth call these models STTM: Short Term Timing Models.
Following today’s Bank of England’s policy meeting, at which the policy rate was cut by 25 bps, we discuss our outlook for monetary policy in the UK. We expect the gradual easing to continue and discuss the investment implications for UK gilts and sterling.