経済

The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, core PCE, came in below expectations at 0.1% m/m in November, remaining steady at 2.8% y/y. The monthly advance was the lowest since May. The inflation deceleration was broad-based. Core services inflation increased…

China’s November monetary and credit data were disappointing. New yuan loans increased by 580 bln, nearly half the expected amount. Total social financing rose by 2.3 tln instead of the expected 2.7 tln. Finally, M2 growth slowed to 7.1% y/y from 7.5% in…

The Federal Reserve cut the fed funds rate by 25 bps to a 4.25%-4.5% range, as expected. However, it was a “hawkish cut”; the FOMC signaled a slower pace of easing ahead. The statement signalled less urgency, saying the “extent and timing” for further cuts…

Our Global Fixed Income and FX strategists published their 2025 outlook, and provide five key views for the year ahead.  Duration revival: After three years of underperformance versus cash, government bonds will outperform in either a soft-landing…

The November UK CPI, in line with estimates, hit an eight-month high, accelerating from 2.3% y/y to 2.6%. Core and services inflation were also strong at 3.5% (vs. 3.3% in October) and 5.0% (flat from October), respectively.  Services inflation…

US November housing data was mixed, but still reflected a weak picture. Housing starts were down 1.8% m/m, below expectations of a 2.6% increase. However, building permits were stronger than expected, increasing 6.1%. Units under construction remain in free…

November retail sales were roughly in line with expectations, with headline growth at 0.7% m/m vs. 0.4% in October. Vehicle sales were solid. Excluding auto and gas, sales rose a more modest 0.2% m/m, below expectations. The control group grew 0.4% m/m after…

European sentiment data was mixed. The December Ifo Business Climate index for Germany missed estimates and was down 1 point to 84.7 from November. The decrease came from its expectations component, which fell to 84.4 from 87.2. Meanwhile, the December ZEW…

The November Canadian CPI was slightly below estimates, declining to 1.9% y/y from 2.0%, below the BoC’s 2% target but within the 1%-to-3% range. The BoC’s favored core measures, median and trim, were flat at 2.6% and 2.7% respectively after revisions. CPI…