地政学

Investors are overstating the positive fiscal impact of the Trump presidency. The bond market will have something to say about the scope for further deficit expansion via tax cuts. As such, the trade after the trade of the Trump 2.0 administration may involve less growth out of the US, not more. In the interim, however, investors should continue to expect higher yields and increased equity volatility. There are plenty of risks ahead, including geopolitics, trade, and uncertainty surrounding fiscal policy.

Ultimately, 2024 is not 2016 — a seemingly obvious point, but one with market relevance. In 2016, voters gave Trump a strong mandate for nominal GDP growth. It is not clear if this is the case today. Inflation is the most important issue, least relevant is trade and globalization. As such, Trump’s renewed mandate is for supply side reforms, not more populism and protectionism.

トランプの圧勝は規制緩和と貿易関税の引き上げを確実にする民意の支持をもたらす。財政赤字の拡大や移民改革も見込まれ、共和党は下院でかろうじて僅差を確保するかもしれない。外交はより一方的になり、当初は米国資産が上回るだろう。