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Simple games allow us to model several of the Trump administration’s most disruptive policies in 2025. We find that markets face an increase in volatility as Congress expands the budget, Trump implements tariffs on the world, China retaliates, and Taiwan tensions persist. A ceasefire in Ukraine is a marginally positive outcome for Europe, although it is not a long-term peace treaty.
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BCA | GeoMacro
A blend of geopolitics and macro, synthesizing the new and old macro to generate alpha and identify the beta through probability-weighted market views.
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