アメリカ合衆国
US January housing data disappointed, with housing starts falling 9.8% m/m after expanding 16.1% in December. The February NAHB Housing Market Index also weakened, falling to 42 from 47 in February. Building permits were the one positive surprise, growing…
Our Geopolitical Strategy team reviewed possible outcomes for Sunday's German election as the far-right is playing an expanding role in mainstream German politics. German voters have shifted to the right, weakening the ruling center-left parties and…
While the main Q1 2025 theme has been “America First”, the year-to-date market story has been more nuanced. “America First” would suggest an outperformance of US assets, but it is European assets that have started the year on a strong footing: The EURO STOXX…
Our Foreign Exchange strategists reviewed the rationale to their short US dollar position as the DXY has been in a trading range with resistance near 110 and support around 100. The widening US budget deficit caps the dollar’s potential. It boosts…
In lieu of all the geopolitical and economic news in media, this report looks at where next the dollar is likely to trend in the next one-to-three months. Our view is down, though on a cyclical horizon (six-to-twelve months), we would not be short the dollar, for now.
January US retail sales missed estimates, with the headline number contracting by 0.9% m/m. The decline was broad-based, with spending excluding autos and gas down 0.5%, and the control group also down 0.8%. The retail sales report was impacted by the…
Our Chart Of The Week comes from Jonathan LaBerge, Chief Strategist for our Special Reports Unit. Jonathan asks whether investors should be encouraged by the fact stocks are shrugging off US tariffs. The answer is no, because the same thing happened in…
This week, our three screeners cover equity plays on the run-up in gold prices, a hotter-than-expected US inflation print, and calling the top in Bitcoin.
The S&P 500 has struggled to re-test all-time highs since the US 10-year Treasury yield has crossed the 4.50% mark. Stocks have moved sideways since December, and January’s hot CPI print confirmed that equities remain averse to higher yields. During…