Economic Growth
Trump’s tariff shock will push Europe into recession — but it’s also triggering a powerful integration response. In this report, we lay out the tactical case for staying defensive and the structural case for going long European assets when the dust settles.
Las medidas de estímulo que impulsaban la expansión pos-COVID empezaban a disminuir después de cinco años y encaminaban a la economía hacia una recesión que se produciría de forma orgánica. Ahora que DOGE y la guerra comercial en múltiples frentes han acelerado el calendario, reiteramos nuestras recomendaciones de aversión al riesgo.
Trump's Tariff D-Day brings a negative surprise to financial markets already anxious over a declining US cyclical economy. Investors should sell risky assets, increase safe havens, and overweight US assets in the near term.
With economic headwinds building and fiscal dynamics shifting, bond markets are at a turning point. Our latest note outlines why German bund yields are set to decline and why UK gilts are poised to outperform — and how to position accordingly.
Stocks will continue to struggle in the second quarter as President Trump tries to implement tariffs. Tax cuts will only temporarily dispel growth fears, if at all. Middle Eastern instability will add oil price surprises to an environment that is looking fairly stagflationary.
In this Second Quarter Strategy Outlook, we explore the major trends that are set to drive financial markets for the rest of 2025 and beyond.
