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United States

Energy Stocks: Laggard To Leader?
The S&P 500 Energy sector’s fortunes have recently reversed. After having been the worst performing sector in the first half of the year — losing 7.3% versus the S&P 500’s 15.9% gain — Energy is now leading all other US equity sectors. Energy stocks…
Daily Insights
About Those Excess Pandemic Savings
Our colleagues at BCA’s US Investment Strategy service have been excess savings bulls since cash began silting up on household balance sheets as transfer payments flowed from the Capitol to Main Street while High Street businesses were shuttered. Excess…
Daily Insights
Probabilities For The US Primary Election

Stocks perform worse in presidential election years than average years, especially in the first half of the year, and especially if the ruling party ends up falling from power. Investors should take risk off the table until the unemployment rate peaks.

US Political Strategy by Matt Gertken
What We're Worried About (And What We're Not)

Magnificent Seven leadership is neither a new nor an unnatural phenomenon. There is no shortage of reasons why equities might have already made a top, but investors should not be tricked into thinking that the rally was somehow specious.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
US Beige Book: Cooling Labor Market, Softening Inflationary Pressures
Overall, the Fed’s latest Beige Book provided a pessimistic assessment of the US economy. Although the report characterized tourism spending as “stronger than expected,” it also noted that pent-up demand for leisure travel has now likely been satisfied and…
Daily Insights
The Dollar And Global Growth
According to BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service, the counter-trend bounce in the dollar will continue. Factually, the trend in the dollar has depended on both global growth dynamics and the relative health of the US economy. From higher…
Daily Insights
Watch The Dots At September FOMC

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for September 2023.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
The US Market Reigns Supreme
Strategists arguing for an end of the outperformance of US equities over international stocks have pointed to the lofty valuations of American stocks vis-à-vis their global counterparts. Moreover, they have highlighted that US tech companies, which have led…
Daily Insights
Bond Yields And Cyclicals Versus Defensives
Since the beginning of the year, our equally-weighted global cyclicals index has outperformed equally-weighted defensives by about 13%. As the chart above shows, this relative performance trend has been extremely positively correlated with US 10-year…
Daily Insights
Global Growth: Failing Engines

If we look at global growth as an aircraft, the plane is experiencing failing engines and will lose more altitude in the coming months. Yet, neither Chinese authorities, nor the Fed or the ECB will be quick to come to the rescue as global growth downshifts. These dynamics herald a stronger US dollar and lower EM risk asset prices.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan

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