GeoMacro Strategy Outlook

Our Best And Worst Calls Of 2025

Matt Gertken, Head of GeoMacro Jesse Kuri, Strategist Yushu Ma, Strategist Max Malakhveitchouk, Senior Analyst Junfei Guo, Research Analyst

Geopolitics Policy War/Conflict

Published on

05 Dec 2025

We got Trump's tariff shock and backtracking correct and predicted Israel's attack on Iran. But we missed the China rally — and there is still no Ukraine ceasefire.

Interested in the Executive Summary of this report?

Get instant access to this Executive Summary from BCA Research.

BCA Research | GeoMacro

A blend of geopolitics and macro, synthesizing the new and old macro to generate alpha and identify the beta through probability-weighted market views.

Learn more

The BCA Way

Our Philosophy, Your Edge

Discover More

Contents

Executive Summary
Poor Timing On European Trades
Missing The China Rally
Oil Prices Fell After Iran Strikes
The Japanese Yen Crashed
Neither Ukraine Ceasefire Nor Crisis
No, The US And Canada Did Not Settle Trade Quickly
The Not-So-Beautiful Basket
Call Of The Year: The Iranian Nuclear Showdown
Trump Trade War 2.0
Global Rearmament
European Car Makers Over Chinese Car Makers
US Exceptionalism, Or Not?
Odds And Ends

Topics covered

Geopolitics War/Conflict Policy

Our Best And Worst Calls Of 2025

Interested in the Executive Summary of this report?

The full report and more insights are available to subscribers of BCA Research's GeoMacro

GeoMacro

Thank you for your request