GeoMacro

Congress will ultimately limit Trump from acting on his worst impulses, but his efforts to bypass those limits will cause market volatility.

The risk to Iran's regime survival raises the probability of a massive global oil supply shock back to around 40%, where we put it last year.

The US removal of Venezuela's Maduro does not presage an invasion of Greenland. But it does justify a lingering risk of conflict with Iran.

In trying to dispel client concerns that the US would get involved in another “forever war” akin to Iraq, we posited in a recent missive that President Trump’s designs on Venezuela were similar to the 1983 invasion of Grenada. A way to flex American muscle while, at the same time, reducing US global commitments.

Late December is time for relaxation and reflection. We sincerely hope that all our clients and friends have had the time to defragment their brains over the past two weeks. The geomacro Vol is unlikely to let up in 2026. We will all need stamina and clarity for what lies ahead.

For investors, there are two ways to think of President Trump’s bellicose rhetoric and military positioning vis-à-vis Venezuela

Informe especial

Every year, the Global Asset Allocation team compiles a list of our favorite books, essays, and articles from our strategists ahead of the holiday season. This year, we focus on writings by practitioners in the world of finance, business, and beyond. While diverse in their backgrounds, one theme stands out: Adaptation.

Rumors are swirling in Washington, D.C. that the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) will rule on President Trump’s tariff policies either this week (according to Barron’s) or in early January (according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent). A ruling against the tariffs would be a major strike against President Trump and, at the very least, upend markets in the short term.

Informe especial

The US is ripe for a third major political party, but the two-party system will probably prevail in the 2028 election. The macro context will determine whether the US elects a left-wing populist.