Insights

Our Geopolitical Strategy team published their annual outlook, and see three trends shaping 2025.    First, Congress is expected to pass tax cuts by the end of 2025, providing a fiscal thrust of 0.9% of GDP in 2026. This stimulus will likely embolden Trump to impose tariffs on ma...

China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI rebounded one point in October to 50.3. This was in line with the NBS PMIs from earlier this week, which also showed a modest rebound. We are looking for a turning point in China as the government unrolls stimulus measures. This Caixin rebound is not that turnin...

The PBoC lowered the 14-day reverse repo rate by 10 bps on Monday, a move that follows a string of easing measures in late July when the central bank lowered the 7-day reverse repo rate, several maturities of the loan prime rate and the 1-year medium-term lending facility rate.Our China Investment s...

After surprising to the upside in July on higher energy costs, Eurozone CPI resumed its deceleration in August. Headline and core CPI declined from 2.6% y/y to 2.2% and from 2.9% to 2.8%, respectively.Energy prices contracted 0.3% y/y from July’s 1.2% increase, however services inflation, which is m...

China’s CPI and PPI prints surprised to the upside on Friday. Producer prices contracted -0.8%y/y, unchanged from June, compared to expectations of a -0.9% contraction. Consumer prices increased 0.5%y/y, above 0.3% expectations.The consumer price index hit its highest rate of change since February, ...

The PBoC lowered the 7-day reverse repo rate from 1.80% to 1.70% on Monday. The 5-year and 1-year loan prime rates declined by 10 basis points (bps) to 3.85% and 3.35%, respectively. However, this 10-bps cut is unlikely to have any meaningful stimulative effect on the overall economy. Not only ...

The four ASEAN stock markets (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines) have fallen in absolute terms over the past year despite the powerful rally in the developed markets. They have also underperformed their EM benchmark. Our Emerging Markets strategists posit that ASEAN stocks and ...