In this week’s Special Report, we introduce our newly constructed China High-Frequency Index (HFI). The HFI provides a timely measurement of China’s current economic conditions, helping investors to gauge cyclical turning points in the economy earlier and identify mini swings within a business cycle...
Peru’s April 2026 election will inject political volatility, but fundamentals are strong and we are constructive. Buy gold mining equities and gold on dips to capture the supportive global cycle and wait for a more attractive entry point for Peruvian assets....
In Section I, Doug notes that a negative stance toward stocks will require a meaningful and imminent deterioration in the US macro data given the ongoing impact of AI optimism on the global equity market. In Section II, Chester reviews the outlook for stablecoins, cryptocurrencies, and central bank ...
A surge in UK employees on long-term sick leave or with a work limiting health condition explains stubbornly high UK wage inflation. This leaves the Bank of England and the UK government with some tough choices to make in the months ahead. Plus, a new tactical trade is short CSI 300....
Dollar softness has had little growth impact, and European equities should keep lagging. A key 2025 trend has been USD depreciation, but the associated easing in financial conditions has offered minimal support to US growth, reflecting higher term premia rather than a genuine liquidity boost. Yields...
Investors will be scrutinizing Nvidia’s earnings report tonight for signs of cracks in the massive, ongoing AI capex boom. I understand the temptation to do so, but I am not certain that capex is the best metric to focus on....
Economic activity plainly slowed in the first half, led by decelerating consumption and payrolls growth, but financial markets didn’t care. If the next two weeks of data don’t indicate that the May-June slowdown stretched into July and August, we will likely drop our defensive recommendations....
Our newly constructed China Economic Pressure Indicator shows intensifying household stress, raising the likelihood of new policy support in the coming months. We recommend a tactical trade as a stimulus hedge....
The AI boom has had less of an impact on the economy than widely believed. This may eventually change, but the risk is that investors grow impatient before it does....
