Policy rates are poised to rise across the developed world as central banks are no longer willing to wait out the Iran-US standoff before taking action to combat the inflationary effects of higher oil prices. Outside of Japan, however, we do not think central banks will hike as much as markets expec...
China’s investment has hit cyclical and structural limits. Mounting economic pressures will likely push Beijing toward a more aggressive, consumer-focused reflationary stance over the next one to two years....
The Fed’s first hike is unlikely to be an equity-market cliff. Recent multiple compression has absorbed some of the rate shock, while bond risk premia, rate volatility, and inflation expectations remain contained. Stocks have typically climbed through hiking cycles, but we favor moving up in quality...
Central banks have begun a mild tightening cycle as elevated energy prices raise concerns about second-round inflation effects. We use BCA’s Central Bank Monitors to test whether hawkish market pricing is justified and identify tactical opportunities across global bond and currency markets....
US corporate balance sheet health looks strong overall, and credit metrics aren’t showing any significant negative impact from the AI issuance boom....
The Fed hiked rates last week, but Fed officials expect this tightening cycle will involve no more than three 25-basis point hikes, contingent on inflation coming down quickly in 2027. We’re inclined to agree....
Labor supply is not meaningfully boosting inflation today, but the net exit of unauthorized immigrants has lowered the bar for stronger labor demand to turn inflationary. Hawkish monetary policy surprises over the coming year are possible....
China shock 2.0 threatens Europe’s industrial core, but it is also forcing a long-overdue response. China stands to lose more than the EU from the coming confrontation. Beijing cannot afford to alienate Europe while its domestic demand remains weak. Europe, meanwhile, can turn protectionism into a s...
Recent oil market developments expose the limits of the adjustment mechanisms that have cushioned the global market since the Hormuz closure began. Fortunately, Hormuz dark transits have become the dominant shock absorber in recent months, and rising flows should help mitigate the latest supply disr...
The Fed is unanimous in expecting a mild tightening cycle of no more than 75 bps, but that outcome is contingent on a rapid drop in core inflation in 2027....
