Insights

We share with our clients a brief rundown of “Washington, DC” intelligence on the upcoming April 2 tariffs. Most of it is bearish. However, the day may mark “peak de-globalization hysteria.” President Trump is also starting his Maximum Pressure campaign against Iran. That is two such campaigns at th...

An analysis of historical data shows that Ba-rated bonds outperform other corporate credit tiers in the long-run on a risk-adjusted basis. That said, today’s fragile macro environment warrants a more cautious allocation....

Households’ healthy balance sheets do not square with the rise in credit cards and auto loans delinquencies. The tailwinds that have supported higher-income cohorts’ spending have faded, presaging broad-based deterioration in credit performance....

European equities have surged on hopes of a low-inflation boom—but the rally has likely gone too far, too fast. With a pullback now likely, how should investors position themselves over the next 3–6 months?...

This week, our three screeners cover equity plays for “transitory” inflation impacts from US tariffs, a correction in sentiment within the European Aerospace and Defense industry, and Value Investor, Warren Buffett’s Philosophy....

Brazilian policymakers are stuck between a rock and a hard place. There is no combination of fiscal and monetary policies that can assure decent growth, on-target inflation, a stable exchange rate, and public debt sustainability. We recommend investors maintain an underweight allocation to Brazilian...

Given the meetings between the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, and the Swiss National Bank, our highest convictions views are: Overweight UK Gilts. It is also time to sell sterling. We are short sterling, as of 1.30. Underweight JGBs. Correspondingly, be long the yen. A short CHF/JPY position re...

In this Special Report, GeoMacro Strategist Marko Papic argues that the Trump administration is flirting with high risk / low reward. Triggering a recession may be the end goal of the White House, but borrowing costs are not declining as much as they ought to be while President Trump’s political cap...

The South African government seems to believe that some fiscal retrenchment can stabilize the public debt-to-GDP ratio. But that’s a misconception. The country will need draconian spending cuts to achieve this....

Data released this Monday suggests that while China’s housing market is no longer worsening, the secular adjustment remains ongoing. Although aggregate housing demand may be stabilizing at a low level, supply will continue to significantly outpace demand, indicating that home price deflation will pe...