In Section I, Doug notes that weak US consumer sentiment is beginning to manifest. A wide sweep of consumer-facing companies have lowered guidance, and monoline credit card lenders shed nearly 20% over just three weeks across late February and early March. If the US enters a recession sometime this ...
Lithium prices have collapsed by nearly 90% from the late-2022 peak. How will lithium markets evolve from here? In this report, we explore the cyclical and structural outlook for supply, demand, and prices. We conclude that prices are likely to remain contained over the coming 12 to 18 months before...
The US economy has never entered a demand-driven recession without labour demand running below labour supply and without the job vacancy rate running below the unemployment rate. Right now though, US labour demand is still running 1.7 million workers above labour supply, and the job vacancy rate is ...
It is easy to hate Multi-Strategy Hedge Funds—they are no underdogs. The truth is they have been cheap, not expensive. Going forward, they come at a higher cost not just in the form of fees. The biggest risk is not to financial markets but to investors. We remain underweight cyclically, long structu...
Our tactical framework highlights how financial conditions and economic surprises interact, where growth often sows the seeds of its own demise. Markets price expectations efficiently but lack perfect foresight, making data surprises key to price action. Growth surprises tighten financial conditions...
There is an ongoing regime shift in Indonesia: SOEs will be used to drive economic growth. Bank loans will accelerate, but their profit margins will shrink. Despite higher nominal growth, Indonesian equity prices in US dollar terms will not see a sustainable bull market. Downside risks to currency a...
Clients have asked us repeatedly about our thoughts on the Mar-a-Lago Accord. Our readers know that we believe that the US is constrained by its median voter and the reality of geopolitical multipolarity. As such, the path of least resistance is towards a cheaper USD, which is currently being achiev...
This report presents our interpretation of signals from the main equity, bond, and currency markets around the world. The key takeaways are: (1) Chinese stocks are behind the resilience of the EM MSCI Index; (2) Investors have become too bullish on Europe and will be disappointed; (3) The US dollar ...
The US economy faces a new investment regime characterized by tighter fiscal and easier monetary policies. The market corrected fast, and a short-lived equity rebound is likely. However, over the long term, US equities face economic headwinds....
