US aerospace and defense stocks still have a structural tailwind from geopolitics, but face rising cyclical challenges from macro and market fundamentals, as well as eventual Iran and Ukraine ceasefires and political change in the United States....
The PCE/CPI gap is an increasingly important factor driving the near-term outlook for Fed policy. We discuss the drivers of that gap and conclude that it’s likely to narrow in the coming months....
Many clients have asked us for an analysis of the long-term implications of the Hormuz Crisis. In this report, we posit that the conflict has been catalyzed by the multipolar context and that it will merely ossify the trends already afoot. Nothing offers incentives for more global capex like the thr...
BCA's CoreMacro and Portfolio Construction teams combine two distinct but intersecting lenses to revisit a once heralded opportunity: India. We upgrade India across both public and private markets, but the conviction is not the same everywhere....
Canada may welcome a trade skirmish with the US. It has ample fiscal room with which to retaliate and its domestic political calculus – with bubbling risk of secession – means that fighting an external threat is a boon, not a bore....
If bond yields rise due to widening bond term premiums or escalating inflation expectations, Bessenomics is unlikely to avert a stock-bond collision. Buy back gold mining stocks....
In this report, we highlight notable developments on both sides of China’s BoP: a widening external surplus on the current account side, and shifts in how that surplus is recycled abroad through BoP financial account....
Despite recent increases, long-maturity Treasury yields are roughly consistent with fundamental fair value. We see limited value in long duration plays....
The RBA is likely done hiking, and the RBNZ overpriced for more hikes. We trace both conclusions back to housing, credit, and external dynamics, with implications for our country allocation in ANZ bonds and our long AUD/NZD view....
