We discuss which variables we are tracking to assess the risks to the bull market in the absence of government data. So far, we do not see any obvious red flags. Remain overweight on equities and fixed income....
Fresh off a month of boning up on all things AI, we walk through a high-level Q&A discussing AI capex and how much the AI investing boom is really contributing to US growth....
MacroQuant is tactically overweight equities, favors an above-benchmark duration stance in fixed-income portfolios, remains bearish on the US dollar, and is bullish on gold and copper....
Falling oil prices are countering tariff-driven inflation which, along with a weakening labor market, is reinforcing a long duration stance. Brent crude broke below the $65/bbl support level held since June and WTI is now down 16% from a year ago. Falling oil prices are significant at this stage of ...
We expect the divergence between resilient growth and weakening employment to be resolved by lower growth estimates, supporting long duration and steepeners. Economic activity and employment usually move together in a circular relationship: spending drives income and jobs, with income driving subseq...
Markets are increasingly pricing an end to the global easing cycle, with many central banks expected to remain on hold. But uncertainty remains high, and policy surprises are likely going into 2026. This Strategy Report breaks down the current drivers behind G10 central bank policies, and how to pos...
The Trump-Xi summit continued the trade truce and tentatively created a framework to contain tensions over 2026. That is not a trade deal but it is good enough for global financial markets, especially Chinese assets....
This week, our screeners explore opportunities arising from Europe’s electrification, identify high-quality Rare Earth plays, and propose a portfolio to hedge against a major global conflict....
In Section I, Doug explains how the sharp upward revision to second-quarter consumption in the final GDP estimate has reduced our recession conviction and could lead us to abandon our recession call altogether. The situation is fluid, though, as typified by the striking weakness of stocks in consume...
