Foreign Exchange & Currency Outlook
Translate macro divergence, policy shifts, and valuation into actionable views across foreign exchange and global currencies.
G10 FX Scorecard: Riding The Carry Wave
Our G10 FX cyclical scorecard still favors high-carry currencies over low yielders, suggesting patience should continue to pay. We break down the factors driving each currency and highlight the most a…
FICC Q4 Strategy Outlook: Climbing The Wall Of Worry
Politics, wars, a global tightening cycle, doubts over AI capex: the wall of worry keeps rising. But the spark that would topple risk assets is missing. Our Q4 FICC outlook explains why to stay long r…
The Dollar's Last Hurrah: Upgrading Our DXY Target To 105
Global capex is driving the strongest industrial cycle since 2021. The US is best positioned to capture the gains and to weather near-term risks, supporting widening real-rate differentials and favori…
Central Bank Monitor Update: The Limits Of The New Tightening Cycle
Central banks have begun a mild tightening cycle as elevated energy prices raise concerns about second-round inflation effects. We use BCA’s Central Bank Monitors to test whether hawkish market pricin…
Currency Chartpack: Euro
Foreign exchange markets are shaped by a wide range of macro influences. The sheer breadth of relevant information makes systematically assessing where a currency stands at any point in time a challen…
The BoJ’s Hawkish Turn Will Push The Yen To 99
The yen's next leg isn't a fiscal story, it's an inflation one, and the BoJ is about to admit it. We lay out why a September pivot sends USD/JPY toward 99, and why global risk assets won't pay the pri…
