Iran

The UAE’s exit from OPEC is unlikely to impact oil markets in 2026. Over the longer term, however, the emergence of an “anti-OPEC club” of producers favoring unconstrained oil output growth would create a headwind to crude prices and weaken the price floor that OPEC seeks to defend.

The Iran war is likely to re-escalate later this year even if shipping somehow resumes in the very near term — and yet an early reopening is looking less likely.

The longer the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the more likely the Eurozone will experience an economic recession, as higher energy prices, supply chain disruptions, and weaker global demand slowly grind the European economy to a halt. The relief rally is running out of time. Investors should add exposure to the best-performing sectors following past oil supply shocks: Energy, pharma, and utilities.

The Iran war has damaged LNG production capacity and halted tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz. We assess the conflict's impact on LNG markets over cyclical and structural horizons.

Red Light. Green Light. So much for the “all clear” in the Hormuz saga. 

The Iran war is deescalating further — against our expectations — setting up an aggressive return to the risk-on rally. 

The dollar’s pullback masks a quiet improvement in its cyclical backdrop, with growth, monetary policy, and flows turning in its favor. As markets fully price out geopolitical risk, the USD should decouple from oil and better reflect these gains, despite lingering structural headwinds.