Fixed Income

Today, we are introducing an additional ‘high-frequency Joshi rule’ which is updated weekly. The Joshi rules tell us that a US recession is not imminent. Until the Joshi rules are triggered, overweight non-US government bonds, and especially UK gilts, versus US T-bonds. And shift cyclical asset allocation from overweight to neutral-weight bonds. Plus: tactically long USD/GBP and tactically underweight global industrials (EXI).

The Fed held rates steady this afternoon, and the timing of its next move will be dictated by whether the tariff shock to inflation is transitory or more long lasting.

We apply our systematic approach to investing based on economic, inflation, and monetary policy surprises to the major global bond markets. The economic regimes defined by the current macro-surprises setup confirm our existing fixed-income portfolio tactical recommendations.

This year’s corporate bond sell off has hit high-yield more than investment grade, and high-yield spreads have turned relatively more attractive as a result.

Are bunds the new Treasurys? The euro and German debt are gaining favor as safe havens, but markets may be overplaying the shift. Our latest report dissects what's durable, what's not, and how to trade the dislocation.

US Treasuries typically outperform both equities and global government bonds during downturns. Recent political shifts could lessen that outperformance this cycle, but we doubt it will disappear completely.

The European economies are facing a major deflationary shock. We recommend that investors stay long a basket of Central European (CE3) domestic bonds. They should also upgrade CE3 bonds and stocks in their respective EM portfolios.