Financial Markets
Our Global Fixed Income strategists continue to recommend long duration exposure, curve steepeners, and an underweight in corporate bonds relative to government bonds, as global recession risks rise. The trade war has increased the odds of a downturn, but the…
We maintain an overweight in government bonds, as recent yield spikes appear technical and unsustainable. US 10-year Treasury yields have surged even as global markets were selling off on growth fears. The move has spread to higher-yielding DMs like the UK,…
Our European strategists recommend staying defensive in the near term. Favor bonds over equities and defensives over cyclicals, as President Trump’s tariffs are set to push the Eurozone into recession by mid-2025. Industrial production, capital spending, and…
USD/CNY’s break above 7.3 signals more downside is in store for the yuan, supporting short high-beta FX and long CHF and JPY positions. The CNY has weakened in 2025 even as the US dollar has depreciated against most major currencies and gold. USD/CNY…
Equities’ post-Liberation Day selloff was historic, but cross-asset signals make it an anomaly. The post-Liberation Day S&P 500’s three-day, 10%+ drawdown joined a list of major episodes that includes the March 2020 COVID-19 crash, the 2008 financial…
Countertrend buy triggers have been activated for the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Nasdaq versus 30-year T-bond.
We maintain our defensive positioning as risk assets remain in a lose-lose situation. Monday’s trading session was volatile, and saw a brief rebound on a false headline about a 90-day tariff pause excluding China. The rally partially reversed as the White…
Our Commodities strategists remain defensively positioned, recommending a long gold versus oil and copper trade over a cyclical timeframe. While gold may correct near term, it still offers safe-haven appeal in the face of rising policy uncertainty.Silver is…
Our Emerging Markets strategists recommend staying defensive and adding exposure to EM local currency bonds, which will benefit from US dollar depreciation over the medium and long term. While tariffs are deflationary for US trading partners and will drive…
The March ISM Services report sent a recessionary signal, supporting our defensive positioning. The headline index fell sharply to 50.8 from 53.5, missing expectations. New orders dropped to 50.2, while employment collapsed to 46.2 from 53.9. Prices paid also…