President Trump has threatened to cancel his planned meeting with President Xi Jinping on October 31 in South Korea at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit. Responding to the October 9 announcement by Beijing that it was imposing new restrictions on refined rare earth minerals – and technolo...
The belief that net portfolio outflows out of the US will fuel EM assets is a common but misguided narrative. If the US starts experiencing net capital outflows, it would need to run a current account surplus. A shift in the US current account from deficit to surplus would be devastating for the glo...
Treasury yields are generally following the pattern of past interest rate cycles, but with a larger term premium keeping the curve steeper than usual....
The ‘special relationship’ between the United States and the United Kingdom describes the centuries-old political, social, cultural, and historic ties that have bound the transatlantic nations. Today though, the most important special relationship is the one that explains why inflation remains stubb...
In this Q4 Strategy Outlook, we discuss where we stand on our recession call, the outlook for stocks and bonds in various scenarios, why investors are misunderstanding the impact of AI on corporate profits, whether the US dollar has entered a structural downtrend, our perspective on the yen, gold an...
While Transportation Infrastructure is intuitive to grasp, its cash flow dynamics are often less understood. This educational report examines cash flow drivers across sectors, highlighting both macro and micro influences. Current opportunities are strongest in Ports and Highways & Roads over Airport...
We remain bullish both bonds and equities, but conviction is falling. We are Luddites when it comes to the AI theme, but we have followed it regardless. A bubble is a bubble, not to be shorted. Yet Europe’s weak AI returns reveal 2025’s real story: the fall of King Dollar....
The dollar’s early 2025 decline was a reflection of a global rush to hedge accumulated USD exposure, not a mass exodus from US assets. With most hedging now complete, currency moves should again follow fundamentals, setting the stage for a tactical USD rebound in the months ahead....
