Inflation
Softer UK labor data argues for a 2s30s gilt steepener, not a broad duration rally. Private-sector wage growth ex. bonuses slowed to 2.8% y/y in the three months to June, the weakest since late 2020, while vacancies fell to 707k, the lowest in more than five…
The war in Iran and the energy shock are driving a reversal of Nordic fortunes: Sweden’s recovery is faltering just as Norway receives a welcome energy windfall. Favor Norwegian over Swedish equities and buy NOK/SEK. In rates, fade aggressive Riksbank hike expectations and downgrade Norwegian government bonds to neutral.
Canada’s hotter July CPI print was driven by energy, while underlying inflation pressures remain contained. Headline inflation rose to 3.0% y/y from 2.8%, reaching the top of the BoC’s 1%-to-3% band. Core inflation also edged up to 1.9%, while the BoC’s…
Polish core inflation remains contained, even as higher fuel costs continue to feed into underlying price pressures. Headline July inflation was in line with consensus at 3.0% y/y, while core printed at 3.1%. With the external inflation backdrop still…
The July PPI report reinforced the view that inflation pressures are easing, giving the Fed more room to stay on hold. Headline PPI was flat on the month, bringing the annual rate down to 4.7% y/y from 5.5%. The core measure, which excludes food, energy, and…
The July CPI report was reassuring and helps build the case for the Fed to hold in September. Headline CPI met estimates, rising 0.1% m/m after a 0.4% decline in June, while annual inflation eased to 3.4% from 3.5%. Core also met estimates at 0.2% m/m, with…
Indian headline CPI stayed around 4.4% in July, keeping inflation above the 4% target but still within the RBI’s tolerance band. Food and fuel prices continue to account for much of the inflationary pressure, though core inflation also remains elevated. Given…
With the July employment report below estimates, key data monitored by the Fed continue to roll over, and will need to keep doing so to prevent material tightening. Our Dual Mandate Surprise Index, which combines employment and inflation surprises and usually…
July's upside surprise in Swedish core inflation should not derail an on-hold Riksbank. Headline CPIF eased to 0.7% y/y (-0.3% m/m), broadly in line with estimates. CPIF excluding energy accelerated to 0.6% y/y (0.4% m/m), above both economists’ estimates and…
Brazil’s central bank cut rates for a fourth consecutive meeting, but inflation risks persist. The move followed a softer-than-expected inflation print, and policymakers signaled that more cuts are likely. Our EM strategists have argued that both policymakers…