FICC

The war in Iran and the energy shock are driving a reversal of Nordic fortunes: Sweden’s recovery is faltering just as Norway receives a welcome energy windfall. Favor Norwegian over Swedish equities and buy NOK/SEK. In rates, fade aggressive Riksbank hike expectations and downgrade Norwegian government bonds to neutral.

Special Report

The Hormuz crisis has exposed a structural vulnerability in China's petrochemical value chain. Going forward, Beijing will look to build greater supply security by scaling up coal-to-olefins capacity — a shift that creates a structural tailwind for coal prices and a structural headwind for oil.

July’s CPI reading was low enough to keep the Fed on hold for now, but near-term upside inflation risks remain.

MoF and the US Treasury stepped in together to defend the yen, but even joint intervention cannot reset the fundamentals still weighing on the currency. Washington's pursuit of its own incentives, meanwhile, offers another glimpse of a more activist US Treasury.

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for August 2026.

Special Report

Rising term premium is often read as a fiscal warning sign. We show the real driver is monetary policy uncertainty, and what the implications are for global term premia going forward.

Despite today’s hold, the bar for a rate hike in September remains low and contingent on the next two core CPI reports.

Special Report

For almost two decades, beta was the only game in town and alpha a loser's game. This era is ending, and we lay out why a more multipolar, dirigiste, and AI-disrupted world is pushing dispersion structurally higher, creating renewed alpha opportunities.

Special Report

Yen weakness and rising JGB yields aren't a fiscal crisis; they're a market pricing an overheating economy and a BoJ falling behind the inflation curve. We lay out why the endgame is near, and what to watch before buying the yen this winter.