Essentials

Bank Credit Analyst

Marking the debut of Chief Technology and Innovation Strategist Matt Dyson, this month’s Global Market Outlook examines Matt’s views on the presence and durability of moats for companies at various segments of the AI chain.

Since ChatGPT’s launch in late 2022, multiple waves of AI innovation have driven markets and dominated the conversation across the investment community. Drawing on an extensive set of questions from BCA clients and strategists, our new report tackles the uncertainties that remain: What beyond customer demand drives token consumption? Will open-weight models eventually dominate? And, perhaps most importantly, how worried should we be about AI-induced extinction?

Bank Credit Analyst

This series brings together five reports on corporate profitability across the US, Europe, Japan, China, and EM. The findings reveal a structurally desynchronized nature between regional corporate profitability. This is critical to alpha generation.

History suggests central bank policy determines how bonds behave in recessions, even for high-debt countries. The Fed should be able to cut into a slowdown, making Treasurys an effective equity hedge… for USD-based investors. Foreign investors will see currency depreciation erase their gains.

Bank Credit Analyst

Policy rates are poised to rise across the developed world as central banks are no longer willing to wait out the Iran-US standoff before taking action to combat the inflationary effects of higher oil prices. Outside of Japan, however, we do not think central banks will hike as much as markets expect.

Labor supply is not meaningfully boosting inflation today, but the net exit of unauthorized immigrants has lowered the bar for stronger labor demand to turn inflationary. Hawkish monetary policy surprises over the coming year are possible.

Bank Credit Analyst

Inflation, not valuation, is the real threat to this bull market. This four-report series lays out where BCA's strategists agree, where they don't, and what to watch for next.

Bank Credit Analyst

An investor might not guess it from the Trump administration’s impatience with bond-market, military and tariff roadblocks, but the US economy is faring just fine. Asset allocators should remain fully invested as per their benchmarks.

Bank Credit Analyst

In this report, Martin Barnes, BCA’s Emeritus Chief Economist, reflects on the rise in US government debt, dollar strength, and profit margin expansion that has occurred over the past 25 years. He argues that these trends are unsustainable and are bound to reverse within the next few years.

Bank Credit Analyst

Section I outlines BCA’s views on the US-Iran conflict, Europe’s near-term outlook, the currency and bond selloffs in Japan and the early days of the Warsh Fed. In Section II, Roukaya, Matt, and Artem argue that the worst of gold's downturn is likely behind us. Real rates and the dollar — which have reasserted themselves as gold's primary drivers — are set to shift from headwinds to tailwinds for the metal.