While it is impossible to know exactly when global equities will peak, there are now enough vulnerabilities to justify keeping one’s finger near the eject button....
The ECB stood pat today, yet the policy path remains fraught with uncertainty as domestic resilience collides with global headwinds. This dichotomy continues to hold important implications for European assets over the coming months....
High US inflation is being driven by tariffs, not domestic inflationary pressure. This argues for Fed easing and a bull-steepening of the Treasury curve....
Russia’s recalcitrance will probably trigger a near-term global stock market correction by prompting larger sanctions and derailing US-China talks. But Israel’s actions do not raise our odds of a major oil shock....
For the next few months at least, inflation risk trumps recession risk for both US markets and world markets. This because, correctly gauged, the US jobs market is still supply-constrained with ‘jobs looking for a worker’ exceeding ‘workers looking for a job’ by 0.4 percent. A still supply-constrain...
Core Europe’s industrial sector will relapse in the coming months due to US tariffs and a strong euro. Investors can play the imminent deflationary shock by being long Central European bonds. They should, however, hedge the currency risk vis-à-vis the euro....
Silver, platinum, and palladium may ride the same cyclical tailwinds as gold in the coming months. However, four key risks threaten their relative performance versus the yellow metal....
The equity bull market continues, as we have been expecting. The bears are over-indexed on the unorthodox policies of the Trump administration, failing to understand that those policies are negative for the USD, which is itself positive for stocks. Yes, a recession could befall the markets over the ...
The Buenos Aires election results are a setback for the government's political momentum, but not the endgame. Our long-term bullish view remains in place, but short-term investors should stay on the sidelines in the near run....
