In Section I, Doug highlights the risks to US consumption if job growth does not soon recover. The US economy has yet to pass its tipping point, however, arguing against defensive positioning for now. In Section II, Jonathan examines whether the AI “scaling laws” are likely to hold. They will over t...
Our new Private Credit taxonomy adds granularity to the opaque lending universe and introduces Asset-Based Lending—attractive entry points, elevated risks. Private Real Estate delivers the largest upgrades from 2025, while Public REITs and Public Infrastructure present compelling opportunities that ...
Contrary to widespread narratives, there is little cash on the sidelines. The aggregate amount of investable funds-to-equity market cap ratio is at an all-time low in the US and very low in other developed markets....
Our first release of the China High-Frequency Indicators for 2026 suggests that economic growth will continue to decelerate in Q1, leading us to adopt a tactically cautious stance on Chinese equities....
Recession risks in the UK are clearly rising. In this Special Report, we unpack why labor market deterioration, falling wage growth, and normalizing inflation support deeper BoE cuts ahead. We then discuss how to position across gilts, the pound, and UK equities....
Our FX strategists expect the US dollar to remain the backbone of the global financial system, even as its reserve-currency premium gradually erodes. The dollar’s entrenched role in global markets argues against abrupt regime breaks. However, the decline in demand for USD reserve assets is expected ...
Japanese yields are heading higher as Japan exits its deflationary regime. Japan is exiting decades of deflation and ultra-accommodative policy, and markets are trying to find their footing. While attention has been focused on policy at the front end of the JGB curve, long-end volatility has increas...
